A. Potapova vs L. Jeanjean — prediction

The model makes A. Potapova the favorite with a 83% win probability, against L. Jeanjean's 17% — a conviction read: the model sees the match clearly leaning one way. Converted to odds, that probability is worth about @1.21; the offered odds are around @1.31 (a 76% implied), slightly above the market, so the model is a touch more optimistic.

Several factors explain the number: #25 vs #127 (better ranked); 5/10 in recent matches; model 83% vs market 76% → the model sees it as more likely than the odds.

Read it with perspective. Our probability is calibrated — when the model says 83%, that outcome happens roughly that percentage of the time, with ~64% out-of-sample accuracy — but being the favorite is not being the winner: roughly 17 out of every 100 times Jeanjean wins. The model also tends to agree with the market, so the odds already capture almost all the edge: don't take it as a sure value. This is informational analysis, not a betting recommendation. 18+ · play responsibly.