ITF · ELO ESTIMATE · 2026-09-02

A. Nagel vs Pe. Tsitsipas — prediction

M25 Casablanca (Morocco)

✓ Correct

NAGELWIN PROBABILITYTSITSIPAS

75%

Elo prob.

@1.18

odds · 85% impl.

⏱Rest 10d vs 5d📈Form 7/10 · 5✓

CONDITIONS OF THE MATCH◆ in the model◇ context

Temperature◇

30°C

Strong heat: warm air speeds the ball up and physical wear tells in long matches.

Humidity◇

59%

Humid air: the ball loses some speed.

Wind◇

10 km/h

Light wind: no noticeable effect.

Context we publish for you: these conditions do NOT move the model probability.

WHAT THE ESTIMATE IS BASED ON

›Tour Elo: 1664 vs 1476 — favorite by rating

›ITF tier · 157 matches in the favorite's track record

›Elo estimate (not the ATP factor model): these are softer, less-analyzed markets

WATCH FOR

!Soft market: the value edge in Challenger/ITF is NOT proven live — treat it as an estimate, not an opportunity.

Tour Elo estimate (Challenger/ITF markets, not covered by the factor model). The value edge here is unproven live — it's a reference, not a recommendation. 18+ · gamble responsibly.

@1.34

fair odds

−11.9%

expected value

BREAKDOWN · ELO ESTIMATE

The model makes A. Nagel the favorite with a 75% win probability, against Pe. Tsitsipas's 25% — a conviction read: the model sees the match clearly leaning one way. Converted to odds, that probability is worth about @1.34; the offered odds are around @1.18 (a 85% implied), slightly below the market, so the model is a touch more cautious.

Several factors explain the number: 1664 vs 1476 — favorite by rating; itf tier · 157 matches in the favorite's track record; these are softer, less-analyzed markets.

Read it with caution. This number does NOT come from the ATP factor model, but from the tour's real Elo: it ranks who is the favorite well, but it is a coarser estimate. Being the favorite is not being the winner: roughly 25 out of every 100 times Tsitsipas wins. And above all, in Challenger/ITF the value edge is not proven live, so treat it as a reference, not an opportunity. Watch out for: Soft market: the value edge in Challenger/ITF is NOT proven live — treat it as an estimate, not an opportunity.. This is informational analysis, not a betting recommendation. 18+ · play responsibly.

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The value read of A. Nagel vs Pe. Tsitsipas — fair odds, expected value, and the factor-by-factor breakdown.

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