A. Anisimova vs L. Tagger — prediction

US Open

ANISIMOVAWIN PROBABILITYTAGGER

76%

model prob.

@1.20

odds · 83% impl.

◐Hard 71%🎾Serve 61%📈Form 8/10 · 2✓

CONDITIONS OF THE MATCH◆ in the model◇ context

Surface◆

Hard

Consistent bounce, medium-fast: neutral conditions, no style favored.

Temperature◇

23°C

Mild: neutral conditions.

Humidity◇

79%

Very humid air: the ball gets heavy and points stretch out.

Wind◇

9 km/h

Light wind: no noticeable effect.

Surface feeds the model (surface specialization is one of its factors). Weather and altitude are context we publish for you — they do NOT move the probability.

OUR MODEL'S REASONING

›Ranking: #10 vs #49 (better ranked)

›Recent form: 6/10 in recent matches

›Solid on Hard: 65% career on the surface

›More rested: 13d vs opponent's 9d

›Model 76% vs market 83% → the model sees it as less likely than the odds

Calibrated model probability (~64% out-of-sample accuracy, validated specifically on WTA). Not a guarantee: the model ≈ the market on average, so the odds already capture almost all the edge. 18+ · gamble responsibly.

@1.32

fair odds

−9.0%

expected value

BREAKDOWN · MODEL ANALYSIS

The model makes A. Anisimova the favorite with a 76% win probability, against L. Tagger's 24% — a conviction read: the model sees the match clearly leaning one way. Converted to odds, that probability is worth about @1.32; the offered odds are around @1.20 (a 83% implied), slightly below the market, so the model is a touch more cautious.

Several factors explain the number: #10 vs #49 (better ranked); 6/10 in recent matches; 65% career on the surface; 13d vs opponent's 9d.

Read it with perspective. Our probability is calibrated — when the model says 76%, that outcome happens roughly that percentage of the time, with ~64% out-of-sample accuracy — but being the favorite is not being the winner: roughly 24 out of every 100 times Tagger wins. The model also tends to agree with the market, so the odds already capture almost all the edge: don't take it as a sure value. This is informational analysis, not a betting recommendation. 18+ · play responsibly.

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The value read of A. Anisimova vs L. Tagger — fair odds, expected value, and the factor-by-factor breakdown.

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