Challenger · ELO ESTIMATE · 2026-09-01
● CLAY
S. Sakellaridis vs A. Nedic — prediction
Como
✗ Missed
SAKELLARIDISWIN PROBABILITYNEDIC
65%
Elo prob.
@1.63
odds · 61% impl.
⏱Rest 7d vs 1d🎾Serve 65%📈Form 7/10 · 2✗
CONDITIONS OF THE MATCH◆ in the model◇ context
Surface◆
Clay
Slow court, high bounce: longer points, rewards whoever holds up from the baseline.
Temperature◇
28°C
Warm: the ball flies a little more and fitness counts.
Humidity◇
53%
Dry air: the ball travels normally.
Wind◇
5 km/h
Light wind: no noticeable effect.
Surface feeds the model (surface specialization is one of its factors). Weather and altitude are context we publish for you — they do NOT move the probability.
WHAT THE ESTIMATE IS BASED ON
›Tour Elo: 1885 vs 1778 — favorite by rating
›Challenger tier · 355 matches in the favorite's track record
›Elo estimate (not the ATP factor model): these are softer, less-analyzed markets
WATCH FOR
!Soft market: the value edge in Challenger/ITF is NOT proven live — treat it as an estimate, not an opportunity.
Tour Elo estimate (Challenger/ITF markets, not covered by the factor model). The value edge here is unproven live — it's a reference, not a recommendation. 18+ · gamble responsibly.