A. Li vs D. Vekic — prediction

US Open

Result pending

LIWIN PROBABILITYVEKIC

57%

model prob.

@1.56

odds · 64% impl.

⚔H2H 1–0 Li⏱Rest 1d vs 2d◐Hard 51%🎾Serve 59%📈Form 6/10

CONDITIONS OF THE MATCH◆ in the model◇ context

Surface◆

Hard

Consistent bounce, medium-fast: neutral conditions, no style favored.

Temperature◇

26°C

Warm: the ball flies a little more and fitness counts.

Humidity◇

88%

Very humid air: the ball gets heavy and points stretch out.

Wind◇

10 km/h

Light wind: no noticeable effect.

Surface feeds the model (surface specialization is one of its factors). Weather and altitude are context we publish for you — they do NOT move the probability.

OUR MODEL'S REASONING

›Ranking: #28 vs #39 (better ranked)

›Head-to-head: 1-0 in favor

›Model 57% vs market 64% → the model sees it as less likely than the odds

›Recent form: 6/10 in recent matches

›Match-sharp: 6 matches in the last 2 weeks

Calibrated model probability (~64% out-of-sample accuracy, validated specifically on WTA). Not a guarantee: the model ≈ the market on average, so the odds already capture almost all the edge. 18+ · gamble responsibly.

@1.76

fair odds

−11.4%

expected value

BREAKDOWN · MODEL ANALYSIS

The model makes A. Li the favorite with a 57% win probability, against D. Vekic's 43% — a tight match, without a wide margin. Converted to odds, that probability is worth about @1.76; the offered odds are around @1.56 (a 64% implied), slightly below the market, so the model is a touch more cautious.

Several factors explain the number: #28 vs #39 (better ranked); 1-0 in favor; model 57% vs market 64% → the model sees it as less likely than the odds; 6/10 in recent matches.

Read it with perspective. Our probability is calibrated — when the model says 57%, that outcome happens roughly that percentage of the time, with ~64% out-of-sample accuracy — but being the favorite is not being the winner: roughly 43 out of every 100 times Vekic wins. The model also tends to agree with the market, so the odds already capture almost all the edge: don't take it as a sure value. This is informational analysis, not a betting recommendation. 18+ · play responsibly.

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The value read of A. Li vs D. Vekic — fair odds, expected value, and the factor-by-factor breakdown.

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