A. Anisimova vs L. Tagger — prediction

The model makes A. Anisimova the favorite with a 74% win probability, against L. Tagger's 26% — a solid favorite, though Tagger keeps real chances. Converted to odds, that probability is worth about @1.34; the offered odds are around @1.17 (a 85% implied), slightly below the market, so the model is a touch more cautious.

Several factors explain the number: #10 vs #49 (better ranked); 65% career on the surface; model 74% vs market 85% → the model sees it as less likely than the odds; 7/10 in recent matches.

Read it with perspective. Our probability is calibrated — when the model says 74%, that outcome happens roughly that percentage of the time, with ~64% out-of-sample accuracy — but being the favorite is not being the winner: roughly 26 out of every 100 times Tagger wins. The model also tends to agree with the market, so the odds already capture almost all the edge: don't take it as a sure value. This is informational analysis, not a betting recommendation. 18+ · play responsibly.