C. Gauff vs Z. Sonmez — prediction

US Open

Result pending

GAUFFWIN PROBABILITYSONMEZ

90%

model prob.

@1.05

odds · 95% impl.

⏱Rest 8d vs 16d◐Hard 75%🎾Serve 62%📈Form 9/10 · 6✓

CONDITIONS OF THE MATCH◆ in the model◇ context

Surface◆

Hard

Consistent bounce, medium-fast: neutral conditions, no style favored.

Temperature◇

24°C

Warm: the ball flies a little more and fitness counts.

Humidity◇

77%

Very humid air: the ball gets heavy and points stretch out.

Wind◇

6 km/h

Light wind: no noticeable effect.

Surface feeds the model (surface specialization is one of its factors). Weather and altitude are context we publish for you — they do NOT move the probability.

OUR MODEL'S REASONING

›Ranking: #4 vs #53 (better ranked)

›Solid on Hard: 71% career on the surface

›Model 90% vs market 95% → the model sees it as less likely than the odds

›Recent form: 9/10 in recent matches

›On a streak: 6 wins in a row

›Match-sharp: 5 matches in the last 2 weeks

Calibrated model probability (~64% out-of-sample accuracy, validated specifically on WTA). Not a guarantee: the model ≈ the market on average, so the odds already capture almost all the edge. 18+ · gamble responsibly.

@1.11

fair odds

−5.8%

expected value

BREAKDOWN · MODEL ANALYSIS

The model makes C. Gauff the favorite with a 90% win probability, against Z. Sonmez's 10% — a conviction read: the model sees the match clearly leaning one way. Converted to odds, that probability is worth about @1.11; the offered odds are around @1.05 (a 95% implied), slightly below the market, so the model is a touch more cautious.

Several factors explain the number: #4 vs #53 (better ranked); 71% career on the surface; model 90% vs market 95% → the model sees it as less likely than the odds; 9/10 in recent matches.

Read it with perspective. Our probability is calibrated — when the model says 90%, that outcome happens roughly that percentage of the time, with ~64% out-of-sample accuracy — but being the favorite is not being the winner: roughly 10 out of every 100 times Sonmez wins. The model also tends to agree with the market, so the odds already capture almost all the edge: don't take it as a sure value. This is informational analysis, not a betting recommendation. 18+ · play responsibly.

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The value read of C. Gauff vs Z. Sonmez — fair odds, expected value, and the factor-by-factor breakdown.

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