MODEL PREDICTION · 2026-08-31
● HARD
A. Li vs A. Ruzic — prediction
LIWIN PROBABILITYRUZIC
65%
model prob.
@1.31
odds · 76% impl.
⚔H2H 1–0 Li⏱Rest 3d vs 7d◐Hard 51%🎾Serve 59%📈Form 5/10
CONDITIONS OF THE MATCH◆ in the model◇ context
Surface◆
Hard
Consistent bounce, medium-fast: neutral conditions, no style favored.
Temperature◇
24°C
Warm: the ball flies a little more and fitness counts.
Humidity◇
75%
Very humid air: the ball gets heavy and points stretch out.
Wind◇
9 km/h
Light wind: no noticeable effect.
Surface feeds the model (surface specialization is one of its factors). Weather and altitude are context we publish for you — they do NOT move the probability.
OUR MODEL'S REASONING
›Ranking: #28 vs #85 (better ranked)
›Head-to-head: 1-0 in favor
›Model 65% vs market 76% → the model sees it as less likely than the odds
›Recent form: 5/10 in recent matches
›Match-sharp: 5 matches in the last 2 weeks
Calibrated model probability (~64% out-of-sample accuracy, validated specifically on WTA). Not a guarantee: the model ≈ the market on average, so the odds already capture almost all the edge. 18+ · gamble responsibly.