S. Kenin vs V. Williams — prediction

The model makes S. Kenin the favorite with a 78% win probability, against V. Williams's 22% — a conviction read: the model sees the match clearly leaning one way. Converted to odds, that probability is worth about @1.28; the offered odds are around @1.14 (a 88% implied), slightly below the market, so the model is a touch more cautious.

Several factors explain the number: #110 vs #611 (better ranked); model 78% vs market 88% → the model sees it as less likely than the odds; 3/10 in recent matches.

Read it with perspective. Our probability is calibrated — when the model says 78%, that outcome happens roughly that percentage of the time, with ~64% out-of-sample accuracy — but being the favorite is not being the winner: roughly 22 out of every 100 times Williams wins. The model also tends to agree with the market, so the odds already capture almost all the edge: don't take it as a sure value. This is informational analysis, not a betting recommendation. 18+ · play responsibly.