M. Timofeeva vs T. Zidansek — prediction

US Open

Result pending

TIMOFEEVAWIN PROBABILITYZIDANSEK

54%

model prob.

@1.47

odds · 68% impl.

⏱Rest 5d vs 2d◐Hard 43%🎾Serve 56%📈Form 7/10 · 3✓

CONDITIONS OF THE MATCH◆ in the model◇ context

Surface◆

Hard

Consistent bounce, medium-fast: neutral conditions, no style favored.

Temperature◇

26°C

Warm: the ball flies a little more and fitness counts.

Humidity◇

71%

Humid air: the ball loses some speed.

Wind◇

15 km/h

Light wind: no noticeable effect.

Surface feeds the model (surface specialization is one of its factors). Weather and altitude are context we publish for you — they do NOT move the probability.

OUR MODEL'S REASONING

›Ranking: #92 vs #146 (better ranked)

›Hard specialist: performs +6% above baseline (54% career on the surface)

›Model 54% vs market 68% → the model sees it as less likely than the odds

›Recent form: 7/10 in recent matches

›On a streak: 3 wins in a row

›Match-sharp: 3 matches in the last 2 weeks

Calibrated model probability (~64% out-of-sample accuracy, validated specifically on WTA). Not a guarantee: the model ≈ the market on average, so the odds already capture almost all the edge. 18+ · gamble responsibly.

@1.85

fair odds

−20.6%

expected value

BREAKDOWN · MODEL ANALYSIS

The model makes M. Timofeeva the favorite with a 54% win probability, against T. Zidansek's 46% — a tight match, without a wide margin. Converted to odds, that probability is worth about @1.85; the offered odds are around @1.47 (a 68% implied), slightly below the market, so the model is a touch more cautious.

Several factors explain the number: #92 vs #146 (better ranked); performs +6% above baseline (54% career on the surface); model 54% vs market 68% → the model sees it as less likely than the odds; 7/10 in recent matches.

Read it with perspective. Our probability is calibrated — when the model says 54%, that outcome happens roughly that percentage of the time, with ~64% out-of-sample accuracy — but being the favorite is not being the winner: roughly 46 out of every 100 times Zidansek wins. The model also tends to agree with the market, so the odds already capture almost all the edge: don't take it as a sure value. This is informational analysis, not a betting recommendation. 18+ · play responsibly.

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The value read of M. Timofeeva vs T. Zidansek — fair odds, expected value, and the factor-by-factor breakdown.

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