Challenger · ELO ESTIMATE · 2026-08-30
● CLAY
F. Bondioli vs F. Arnaboldi — prediction
Como
Result pending
BONDIOLIWIN PROBABILITYARNABOLDI
65%
Elo prob.
@1.39
odds · 72% impl.
🎾Serve 61%
CONDITIONS OF THE MATCH◆ in the model◇ context
Surface◆
Clay
Slow court, high bounce: longer points, rewards whoever holds up from the baseline.
Temperature◇
29°C
Warm: the ball flies a little more and fitness counts.
Humidity◇
42%
Dry air: the ball travels normally.
Wind◇
5 km/h
Light wind: no noticeable effect.
Surface feeds the model (surface specialization is one of its factors). Weather and altitude are context we publish for you — they do NOT move the probability.
WHAT THE ESTIMATE IS BASED ON
›Tour Elo: 1751 vs 1641 — favorite by rating
›Challenger tier · 216 matches in the favorite's track record
›Elo estimate (not the ATP factor model): these are softer, less-analyzed markets
WATCH FOR
!Soft market: the value edge in Challenger/ITF is NOT proven live — treat it as an estimate, not an opportunity.
Tour Elo estimate (Challenger/ITF markets, not covered by the factor model). The value edge here is unproven live — it's a reference, not a recommendation. 18+ · gamble responsibly.