MODEL PREDICTION · 2026-08-30
● HARD
E. Alexandrova vs M. Kessler — prediction
ALEXANDROVAWIN PROBABILITYKESSLER
64%
model prob.
@1.69
odds · 59% impl.
⚔H2H 1–0 Alexandrova⏱Rest 3d vs 16d◐Hard 55%🎾Serve 59%📈Form 6/10 · 2✗
CONDITIONS OF THE MATCH◆ in the model◇ context
Surface◆
Hard
Consistent bounce, medium-fast: neutral conditions, no style favored.
Temperature◇
26°C
Warm: the ball flies a little more and fitness counts.
Humidity◇
71%
Humid air: the ball loses some speed.
Wind◇
15 km/h
Light wind: no noticeable effect.
Surface feeds the model (surface specialization is one of its factors). Weather and altitude are context we publish for you — they do NOT move the probability.
OUR MODEL'S REASONING
›Ranking: #19 vs #65 (better ranked)
›Head-to-head: 1-0 in favor
›Model 64% vs market 59% → the model sees it as MORE likely than the odds
›Recent form: 6/10 in recent matches
›Match-sharp: 3 matches in the last 2 weeks
Calibrated model probability (~64% out-of-sample accuracy, validated specifically on WTA). Not a guarantee: the model ≈ the market on average, so the odds already capture almost all the edge. 18+ · gamble responsibly.