C. Tauson vs S. Stephens — prediction

The model makes C. Tauson the favorite with a 70% win probability, against S. Stephens's 30% — a solid favorite, though Stephens keeps real chances. Converted to odds, that probability is worth about @1.43; the offered odds are around @1.38 (a 72% implied), virtually the same as what the market prices in.

Several factors explain the number: #42 vs #208 (better ranked); 61% career on the surface; 5/10 in recent matches; 5 matches in the last 2 weeks.

Read it with perspective. Our probability is calibrated — when the model says 70%, that outcome happens roughly that percentage of the time, with ~64% out-of-sample accuracy — but being the favorite is not being the winner: roughly 30 out of every 100 times Stephens wins. The model also tends to agree with the market, so the odds already capture almost all the edge: don't take it as a sure value. This is informational analysis, not a betting recommendation. 18+ · play responsibly.