A. Anisimova vs A. Krueger — prediction

US Open

Result pending

ANISIMOVAWIN PROBABILITYKRUEGER

77%

model prob.

@1.18

odds · 85% impl.

⚔H2H 1–0 Anisimova⏱Rest 10d vs 5d◐Hard 71%🎾Serve 61%📈Form 6/10

CONDITIONS OF THE MATCH◆ in the model◇ context

Surface◆

Hard

Consistent bounce, medium-fast: neutral conditions, no style favored.

Temperature◇

26°C

Warm: the ball flies a little more and fitness counts.

Humidity◇

71%

Humid air: the ball loses some speed.

Wind◇

15 km/h

Light wind: no noticeable effect.

Surface feeds the model (surface specialization is one of its factors). Weather and altitude are context we publish for you — they do NOT move the probability.

OUR MODEL'S REASONING

›Ranking: #10 vs #62 (better ranked)

›Head-to-head: 1-0 in favor

›Solid on Hard: 65% career on the surface

›Model 77% vs market 85% → the model sees it as less likely than the odds

›Recent form: 6/10 in recent matches

›Match-sharp: 3 matches in the last 2 weeks

›More rested: 10d vs opponent's 5d

Calibrated model probability (~64% out-of-sample accuracy, validated specifically on WTA). Not a guarantee: the model ≈ the market on average, so the odds already capture almost all the edge. 18+ · gamble responsibly.

@1.31

fair odds

−9.6%

expected value

BREAKDOWN · MODEL ANALYSIS

The model makes A. Anisimova the favorite with a 77% win probability, against A. Krueger's 23% — a conviction read: the model sees the match clearly leaning one way. Converted to odds, that probability is worth about @1.31; the offered odds are around @1.18 (a 85% implied), slightly below the market, so the model is a touch more cautious.

Several factors explain the number: #10 vs #62 (better ranked); 1-0 in favor; 65% career on the surface; model 77% vs market 85% → the model sees it as less likely than the odds.

Read it with perspective. Our probability is calibrated — when the model says 77%, that outcome happens roughly that percentage of the time, with ~64% out-of-sample accuracy — but being the favorite is not being the winner: roughly 23 out of every 100 times Krueger wins. The model also tends to agree with the market, so the odds already capture almost all the edge: don't take it as a sure value. This is informational analysis, not a betting recommendation. 18+ · play responsibly.

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The value read of A. Anisimova vs A. Krueger — fair odds, expected value, and the factor-by-factor breakdown.

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