Consistent bounce, medium-fast: neutral conditions, no style favored.
Warm: the ball flies a little more and fitness counts.
Dry air: the ball travels normally.
Light wind: no noticeable effect.
Surface feeds the model (surface specialization is one of its factors). Weather and altitude are context we publish for you — they do NOT move the probability.
›Ranking: #31 vs #69 (better ranked)
›Head-to-head: 1-0 in favor
›Recent form: 2/10 in recent matches
›More rested: 14d vs opponent's 8d
!Coming off 4 losses in a row
The model makes T. M. Etcheverry the favorite with a 60% win probability, against V. Kopriva's 40% — a solid favorite, though Kopriva keeps real chances. Converted to odds, that probability is worth about @1.68; the offered odds are around @1.57 (a 64% implied), slightly below the market, so the model is a touch more cautious.
Several factors explain the number: #31 vs #69 (better ranked); 1-0 in favor; 2/10 in recent matches; 14d vs opponent's 8d.
Read it with perspective. Our probability is calibrated — when the model says 60%, that outcome happens roughly that percentage of the time, with ~65% out-of-sample accuracy — but being the favorite is not being the winner: roughly 40 out of every 100 times Kopriva wins. The model also tends to agree with the market, so the odds already capture almost all the edge: don't take it as a sure value. Watch out for: Coming off 4 losses in a row. This is informational analysis, not a betting recommendation. 18+ · play responsibly.