M. Kostyuk vs S. Hunter — prediction

The model makes M. Kostyuk the favorite with a 84% win probability, against S. Hunter's 16% — a conviction read: the model sees the match clearly leaning one way. Converted to odds, that probability is worth about @1.19; the offered odds are around @1.08 (a 93% implied), slightly below the market, so the model is a touch more cautious.

Several factors explain the number: #11 vs #169 (better ranked); model 84% vs market 93% → the model sees it as less likely than the odds; 6/10 in recent matches; 4 matches in the last 2 weeks.

Read it with perspective. Our probability is calibrated — when the model says 84%, that outcome happens roughly that percentage of the time, with ~64% out-of-sample accuracy — but being the favorite is not being the winner: roughly 16 out of every 100 times Hunter wins. The model also tends to agree with the market, so the odds already capture almost all the edge: don't take it as a sure value. This is informational analysis, not a betting recommendation. 18+ · play responsibly.