ITF · ELO ESTIMATE · 2026-08-29
● CLAY
F. Pieczonka vs M. Savano — prediction
M25 Poznan
Result pending
PIECZONKAWIN PROBABILITYSAVANO
59%
Elo prob.
@1.33
odds · 75% impl.
⏱Rest 1d vs 2d📈Form 6/10 · 3✓
CONDITIONS OF THE MATCH◆ in the model◇ context
Surface◆
Clay
Slow court, high bounce: longer points, rewards whoever holds up from the baseline.
Temperature◇
23°C
Mild: neutral conditions.
Humidity◇
50%
Dry air: the ball travels normally.
Wind◇
14 km/h
Light wind: no noticeable effect.
Surface feeds the model (surface specialization is one of its factors). Weather and altitude are context we publish for you — they do NOT move the probability.
WHAT THE ESTIMATE IS BASED ON
›Tour Elo: 1598 vs 1534 — favorite by rating
›ITF tier · 78 matches in the favorite's track record
›Elo estimate (not the ATP factor model): these are softer, less-analyzed markets
WATCH FOR
!Soft market: the value edge in Challenger/ITF is NOT proven live — treat it as an estimate, not an opportunity.
Tour Elo estimate (Challenger/ITF markets, not covered by the factor model). The value edge here is unproven live — it's a reference, not a recommendation. 18+ · gamble responsibly.