Y. Yuan vs M. Stoiana — prediction

The model makes Y. Yuan the favorite with a 51% win probability, against M. Stoiana's 49% — a tight match, without a wide margin. Converted to odds, that probability is worth about @1.95; the offered odds are around @2.08 (a 48% implied), slightly above the market, so the model is a touch more optimistic.

Several factors explain the number: #138 vs #122; performs +5% above baseline (49% career on the surface); 4/10 in recent matches; 2 wins in a row.

Read it with perspective. Our probability is calibrated — when the model says 51%, that outcome happens roughly that percentage of the time, with ~64% out-of-sample accuracy — but being the favorite is not being the winner: roughly 49 out of every 100 times Stoiana wins. The model also tends to agree with the market, so the odds already capture almost all the edge: don't take it as a sure value. This is informational analysis, not a betting recommendation. 18+ · play responsibly.