D. Parry vs A. Li — prediction

Monterrey

Result pending

PARRYWIN PROBABILITYLI

51%

model prob.

@2.35

odds · 43% impl.

⚔H2H 1–0 Parry⏱Rest 2d vs 1d◐Hard 53%🎾Serve 61%📈Form 6/10 · 3✓

CONDITIONS OF THE MATCH◆ in the model◇ context

Surface◆

Hard

Consistent bounce, medium-fast: neutral conditions, no style favored.

Temperature◇

35°C

Strong heat: warm air speeds the ball up and physical wear tells in long matches.

Humidity◇

31%

Very dry air: the ball travels faster.

Wind◇

19 km/h

Some wind: makes baseline control harder.

Altitude◇

540 m

Moderate altitude: the ball flies a little more than at sea level.

Surface feeds the model (surface specialization is one of its factors). Weather and altitude are context we publish for you — they do NOT move the probability.

OUR MODEL'S REASONING

›Ranking: #50 vs #30

›Head-to-head: 1-0 in favor

›Model 51% vs market 43% → the model sees it as MORE likely than the odds

›Recent form: 6/10 in recent matches

›On a streak: 3 wins in a row

›Match-sharp: 5 matches in the last 2 weeks

Calibrated model probability (~64% out-of-sample accuracy, validated specifically on WTA). Not a guarantee: the model ≈ the market on average, so the odds already capture almost all the edge. 18+ · gamble responsibly.

@1.98

fair odds

+18.7%

expected value

BREAKDOWN · MODEL ANALYSIS

The model makes D. Parry the favorite with a 51% win probability, against A. Li's 49% — a tight match, without a wide margin. Converted to odds, that probability is worth about @1.98; the offered odds are around @2.35 (a 43% implied), slightly above the market, so the model is a touch more optimistic.

Several factors explain the number: #50 vs #30; 1-0 in favor; model 51% vs market 43% → the model sees it as more likely than the odds; 6/10 in recent matches.

Read it with perspective. Our probability is calibrated — when the model says 51%, that outcome happens roughly that percentage of the time, with ~64% out-of-sample accuracy — but being the favorite is not being the winner: roughly 49 out of every 100 times Li wins. The model also tends to agree with the market, so the odds already capture almost all the edge: don't take it as a sure value. This is informational analysis, not a betting recommendation. 18+ · play responsibly.

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The value read of D. Parry vs A. Li — fair odds, expected value, and the factor-by-factor breakdown.

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