C. Tauson vs D. Parry — prediction

Monterrey

TAUSONWIN PROBABILITYPARRY

51%

model prob.

@1.50

odds · 67% impl.

⚔H2H 0–4 Tauson⏱Rest 1d vs 2d◐Hard 63%🎾Serve 60%📈Form 6/10 · 2✗

CONDITIONS OF THE MATCH◆ in the model◇ context

Surface◆

Hard

Consistent bounce, medium-fast: neutral conditions, no style favored.

Temperature◇

35°C

Strong heat: warm air speeds the ball up and physical wear tells in long matches.

Humidity◇

32%

Very dry air: the ball travels faster.

Wind◇

20 km/h

Some wind: makes baseline control harder.

Altitude◇

540 m

Moderate altitude: the ball flies a little more than at sea level.

Surface feeds the model (surface specialization is one of its factors). Weather and altitude are context we publish for you — they do NOT move the probability.

OUR MODEL'S REASONING

›Ranking: #42 vs #50 (better ranked)

›Head-to-head: 0-2 against

›Solid on Hard: 61% career on the surface

›Model 51% vs market 67% → the model sees it as less likely than the odds

›Recent form: 6/10 in recent matches

›Match-sharp: 8 matches in the last 2 weeks

WATCH FOR

!Unfavorable head-to-head record (0-2)

Calibrated model probability (~64% out-of-sample accuracy, validated specifically on WTA). Not a guarantee: the model ≈ the market on average, so the odds already capture almost all the edge. 18+ · gamble responsibly.

@1.96

fair odds

−23.6%

expected value

BREAKDOWN · MODEL ANALYSIS

The model makes C. Tauson the favorite with a 51% win probability, against D. Parry's 49% — a tight match, without a wide margin. Converted to odds, that probability is worth about @1.96; the offered odds are around @1.50 (a 67% implied), slightly below the market, so the model is a touch more cautious.

Several factors explain the number: #42 vs #50 (better ranked); 0-2 against; 61% career on the surface; model 51% vs market 67% → the model sees it as less likely than the odds.

Read it with perspective. Our probability is calibrated — when the model says 51%, that outcome happens roughly that percentage of the time, with ~64% out-of-sample accuracy — but being the favorite is not being the winner: roughly 49 out of every 100 times Parry wins. The model also tends to agree with the market, so the odds already capture almost all the edge: don't take it as a sure value. Watch out for: Unfavorable head-to-head record (0-2). This is informational analysis, not a betting recommendation. 18+ · play responsibly.

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The value read of C. Tauson vs D. Parry — fair odds, expected value, and the factor-by-factor breakdown.

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