Y. Yuan vs M. Stoiana — prediction

US Open

Result pending

YUANWIN PROBABILITYSTOIANA

65%

model prob.

@2.10

odds · 48% impl.

◐Hard 37%🎾Serve 59%📈Form 7/10 · 4✓

CONDITIONS OF THE MATCH◆ in the model◇ context

Surface◆

Hard

Consistent bounce, medium-fast: neutral conditions, no style favored.

Temperature◇

27°C

Warm: the ball flies a little more and fitness counts.

Humidity◇

71%

Humid air: the ball loses some speed.

Wind◇

24 km/h

Some wind: makes baseline control harder.

Surface feeds the model (surface specialization is one of its factors). Weather and altitude are context we publish for you — they do NOT move the probability.

OUR MODEL'S REASONING

›Ranking: #138 vs #122

›Recent form: 5/10 in recent matches

›Hard specialist: performs +5% above baseline (49% career on the surface)

›More rested: 37d vs opponent's 13d

›Model 65% vs market 48% → the model sees it as MORE likely than the odds

WATCH FOR

!Returning from a long layoff (37d) — possible rustiness

Calibrated model probability (~64% out-of-sample accuracy, validated specifically on WTA). Not a guarantee: the model ≈ the market on average, so the odds already capture almost all the edge. 18+ · gamble responsibly.

@1.55

fair odds

+35.5%

expected value

BREAKDOWN · MODEL ANALYSIS

The model makes Y. Yuan the favorite with a 65% win probability, against M. Stoiana's 35% — a solid favorite, though Stoiana keeps real chances. Converted to odds, that probability is worth about @1.55; the offered odds are around @2.10 (a 48% implied), slightly above the market, so the model is a touch more optimistic.

Several factors explain the number: #138 vs #122; 5/10 in recent matches; performs +5% above baseline (49% career on the surface); 37d vs opponent's 13d.

Read it with perspective. Our probability is calibrated — when the model says 65%, that outcome happens roughly that percentage of the time, with ~64% out-of-sample accuracy — but being the favorite is not being the winner: roughly 35 out of every 100 times Stoiana wins. The model also tends to agree with the market, so the odds already capture almost all the edge: don't take it as a sure value. Watch out for: Returning from a long layoff (37d) — possible rustiness. This is informational analysis, not a betting recommendation. 18+ · play responsibly.

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The value read of Y. Yuan vs M. Stoiana — fair odds, expected value, and the factor-by-factor breakdown.

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