A. Martin vs L. Rivera — prediction

M15 Vienna

Result pending

MARTINWIN PROBABILITYRIVERA

86%

Elo prob.

@1.11

odds · 90% impl.

🎾Serve 60%📈Form 6/10 · 3✓

CONDITIONS OF THE MATCH◆ in the model◇ context

Surface◆

Clay

Slow court, high bounce: longer points, rewards whoever holds up from the baseline.

Temperature◇

29°C

Warm: the ball flies a little more and fitness counts.

Humidity◇

40%

Dry air: the ball travels normally.

Wind◇

11 km/h

Light wind: no noticeable effect.

Surface feeds the model (surface specialization is one of its factors). Weather and altitude are context we publish for you — they do NOT move the probability.

WHAT THE ESTIMATE IS BASED ON

›Tour Elo: 1730 vs 1417 — favorite by rating

›ITF tier · 469 matches in the favorite's track record

›Elo estimate (not the ATP factor model): these are softer, less-analyzed markets

WATCH FOR

!Soft market: the value edge in Challenger/ITF is NOT proven live — treat it as an estimate, not an opportunity.

Tour Elo estimate (Challenger/ITF markets, not covered by the factor model). The value edge here is unproven live — it's a reference, not a recommendation. 18+ · gamble responsibly.

@1.16

fair odds

−4.7%

expected value

BREAKDOWN · ELO ESTIMATE

The model makes A. Martin the favorite with a 86% win probability, against L. Rivera's 14% — a conviction read: the model sees the match clearly leaning one way. Converted to odds, that probability is worth about @1.16; the offered odds are around @1.11 (a 90% implied), slightly below the market, so the model is a touch more cautious.

Several factors explain the number: 1730 vs 1417 — favorite by rating; itf tier · 469 matches in the favorite's track record; these are softer, less-analyzed markets.

Read it with caution. This number does NOT come from the ATP factor model, but from the tour's real Elo: it ranks who is the favorite well, but it is a coarser estimate. Being the favorite is not being the winner: roughly 14 out of every 100 times Rivera wins. And above all, in Challenger/ITF the value edge is not proven live, so treat it as a reference, not an opportunity. Watch out for: Soft market: the value edge in Challenger/ITF is NOT proven live — treat it as an estimate, not an opportunity.. This is informational analysis, not a betting recommendation. 18+ · play responsibly.

Analyze today's matches →

🔒

Full analysis & value verdict is Premium

The value read of A. Martin vs L. Rivera — fair odds, expected value, and the factor-by-factor breakdown.

New here? Free account · 3 days of full access