ITF · ELO ESTIMATE · 2026-08-26

M. Valkusz vs M. Gloeckler — prediction

M15 Pecs (Hungary)

✓ Correct

VALKUSZWIN PROBABILITYGLOECKLER

91%

Elo prob.

@1.06

odds · 94% impl.

⏱Rest 5d vs 15d📈Form 6/10

WHAT THE ESTIMATE IS BASED ON

›Tour Elo: 1734 vs 1338 — favorite by rating

›ITF tier · 167 matches in the favorite's track record

›Elo estimate (not the ATP factor model): these are softer, less-analyzed markets

WATCH FOR

!Soft market: the value edge in Challenger/ITF is NOT proven live — treat it as an estimate, not an opportunity.

Tour Elo estimate (Challenger/ITF markets, not covered by the factor model). The value edge here is unproven live — it's a reference, not a recommendation. 18+ · gamble responsibly.

@1.10

fair odds

−3.8%

expected value

BREAKDOWN · ELO ESTIMATE

The model makes M. Valkusz the favorite with a 91% win probability, against M. Gloeckler's 9% — a conviction read: the model sees the match clearly leaning one way. Converted to odds, that probability is worth about @1.10; the offered odds are around @1.06 (a 94% implied), slightly below the market, so the model is a touch more cautious.

Several factors explain the number: 1734 vs 1338 — favorite by rating; itf tier · 167 matches in the favorite's track record; these are softer, less-analyzed markets.

Read it with caution. This number does NOT come from the ATP factor model, but from the tour's real Elo: it ranks who is the favorite well, but it is a coarser estimate. Being the favorite is not being the winner: roughly 9 out of every 100 times Gloeckler wins. And above all, in Challenger/ITF the value edge is not proven live, so treat it as a reference, not an opportunity. Watch out for: Soft market: the value edge in Challenger/ITF is NOT proven live — treat it as an estimate, not an opportunity.. This is informational analysis, not a betting recommendation. 18+ · play responsibly.

Analyze today's matches →