K. Jacquet vs A. Dougaz — prediction
Consistent bounce, medium-fast: neutral conditions, no style favored.
Warm: the ball flies a little more and fitness counts.
Dry air: the ball travels normally.
Light wind: no noticeable effect.
Surface feeds the model (surface specialization is one of its factors). Weather and altitude are context we publish for you — they do NOT move the probability.
›Ranking: #107 vs #520 (better ranked)
›Recent form: 2/10 in recent matches
›Model 70% vs market 75% → the model sees it as less likely than the odds
!Coming off 3 losses in a row
The model makes K. Jacquet the favorite with a 70% win probability, against A. Dougaz's 30% — a solid favorite, though Dougaz keeps real chances. Converted to odds, that probability is worth about @1.44; the offered odds are around @1.33 (a 75% implied), slightly below the market, so the model is a touch more cautious.
Several factors explain the number: #107 vs #520 (better ranked); 2/10 in recent matches; model 70% vs market 75% → the model sees it as less likely than the odds.
Read it with perspective. Our probability is calibrated — when the model says 70%, that outcome happens roughly that percentage of the time, with ~65% out-of-sample accuracy — but being the favorite is not being the winner: roughly 30 out of every 100 times Dougaz wins. The model also tends to agree with the market, so the odds already capture almost all the edge: don't take it as a sure value. Watch out for: Coming off 3 losses in a row. This is informational analysis, not a betting recommendation. 18+ · play responsibly.