J. Fearnley vs L. Pavlovic — prediction
Consistent bounce, medium-fast: neutral conditions, no style favored.
Warm: the ball flies a little more and fitness counts.
Dry air: the ball travels normally.
Light wind: no noticeable effect.
Surface feeds the model (surface specialization is one of its factors). Weather and altitude are context we publish for you — they do NOT move the probability.
›Ranking: #100 vs #203 (better ranked)
›Recent form: 3/10 in recent matches
›Model 58% vs market 81% → the model sees it as less likely than the odds
!Returning from a long layoff (21d) — possible rustiness
The model makes J. Fearnley the favorite with a 58% win probability, against L. Pavlovic's 42% — a tight match, without a wide margin. Converted to odds, that probability is worth about @1.71; the offered odds are around @1.23 (a 81% implied), slightly below the market, so the model is a touch more cautious.
Several factors explain the number: #100 vs #203 (better ranked); 3/10 in recent matches; model 58% vs market 81% → the model sees it as less likely than the odds.
Read it with perspective. Our probability is calibrated — when the model says 58%, that outcome happens roughly that percentage of the time, with ~65% out-of-sample accuracy — but being the favorite is not being the winner: roughly 42 out of every 100 times Pavlovic wins. The model also tends to agree with the market, so the odds already capture almost all the edge: don't take it as a sure value. Watch out for: Returning from a long layoff (21d) — possible rustiness. This is informational analysis, not a betting recommendation. 18+ · play responsibly.