MODEL PREDICTION · 2026-08-25
● HARD
M. Joint vs A. Kalinina — prediction
Monterrey
JOINTWIN PROBABILITYKALININA
52%
model prob.
@1.91
odds · 52% impl.
⏱Rest 1d vs 10d◐Hard 50%🎾Serve 55%📈Form 6/10 · 4✓
CONDITIONS OF THE MATCH◆ in the model◇ context
Surface◆
Hard
Consistent bounce, medium-fast: neutral conditions, no style favored.
Temperature◇
36°C
Strong heat: warm air speeds the ball up and physical wear tells in long matches.
Humidity◇
31%
Very dry air: the ball travels faster.
Wind◇
21 km/h
Some wind: makes baseline control harder.
Altitude◇
540 m
Moderate altitude: the ball flies a little more than at sea level.
Surface feeds the model (surface specialization is one of its factors). Weather and altitude are context we publish for you — they do NOT move the probability.
OUR MODEL'S REASONING
›Ranking: #67 vs #51
›Recent form: 5/10 in recent matches
Calibrated model probability (~64% out-of-sample accuracy, validated specifically on WTA). Not a guarantee: the model ≈ the market on average, so the odds already capture almost all the edge. 18+ · gamble responsibly.