Y. Yuan vs H. Guo — prediction
Consistent bounce, medium-fast: neutral conditions, no style favored.
Warm: the ball flies a little more and fitness counts.
Dry air: the ball travels normally.
Light wind: no noticeable effect.
Surface feeds the model (surface specialization is one of its factors). Weather and altitude are context we publish for you — they do NOT move the probability.
›Ranking: #138 vs #210 (better ranked)
›Hard specialist: performs +5% above baseline (49% career on the surface)
›Recent form: 2/10 in recent matches
The model makes Y. Yuan the favorite with a 64% win probability, against H. Guo's 36% — a solid favorite, though Guo keeps real chances. Converted to odds, that probability is worth about @1.56; the offered odds are around @1.46 (a 68% implied), slightly below the market, so the model is a touch more cautious.
Several factors explain the number: #138 vs #210 (better ranked); performs +5% above baseline (49% career on the surface); 2/10 in recent matches.
Read it with perspective. Our probability is calibrated — when the model says 64%, that outcome happens roughly that percentage of the time, with ~64% out-of-sample accuracy — but being the favorite is not being the winner: roughly 36 out of every 100 times Guo wins. The model also tends to agree with the market, so the odds already capture almost all the edge: don't take it as a sure value. This is informational analysis, not a betting recommendation. 18+ · play responsibly.