O. Tarvet vs M. Pucinelli de Almeida — prediction

Roehampton 2 (United Kingdom) - Qualification

Result pending

TARVETWIN PROBABILITYALMEIDA

57%

Elo prob.

@1.13

odds · 88% impl.

⚔H2H 1–0 Tarvet⏱Rest 2d vs 5d🎾Serve 67%📈Form 9/10 · 5✓

CONDITIONS OF THE MATCH◆ in the model◇ context

Surface◆

Hard

Consistent bounce, medium-fast: neutral conditions, no style favored.

Surface feeds the model — surface specialization is one of its factors.

WHAT THE ESTIMATE IS BASED ON

›Tour Elo: 1860 vs 1809 — favorite by rating

›Challenger tier · 88 matches in the favorite's track record

›Elo estimate (not the ATP factor model): these are softer, less-analyzed markets

WATCH FOR

!Soft market: the value edge in Challenger/ITF is NOT proven live — treat it as an estimate, not an opportunity.

Tour Elo estimate (Challenger/ITF markets, not covered by the factor model). The value edge here is unproven live — it's a reference, not a recommendation. 18+ · gamble responsibly.

@1.75

fair odds

−35.3%

expected value

BREAKDOWN · ELO ESTIMATE

The model makes O. Tarvet the favorite with a 57% win probability, against M. Pucinelli de Almeida's 43% — a tight match, without a wide margin. Converted to odds, that probability is worth about @1.75; the offered odds are around @1.13 (a 88% implied), slightly below the market, so the model is a touch more cautious.

Several factors explain the number: 1860 vs 1809 — favorite by rating; challenger tier · 88 matches in the favorite's track record; these are softer, less-analyzed markets.

Read it with caution. This number does NOT come from the ATP factor model, but from the tour's real Elo: it ranks who is the favorite well, but it is a coarser estimate. Being the favorite is not being the winner: roughly 43 out of every 100 times Almeida wins. And above all, in Challenger/ITF the value edge is not proven live, so treat it as a reference, not an opportunity. Watch out for: Soft market: the value edge in Challenger/ITF is NOT proven live — treat it as an estimate, not an opportunity.. This is informational analysis, not a betting recommendation. 18+ · play responsibly.

Analyze today's matches →

🔒

Full analysis & value verdict is Premium

The value read of O. Tarvet vs M. Pucinelli de Almeida — fair odds, expected value, and the factor-by-factor breakdown.

New here? Free account · 3 days of full access