Consistent bounce, medium-fast: neutral conditions, no style favored.
Warm: the ball flies a little more and fitness counts.
Dry air: the ball travels normally.
Some wind: makes baseline control harder.
Surface feeds the model (surface specialization is one of its factors). Weather and altitude are context we publish for you — they do NOT move the probability.
›Ranking: #197 vs #141
›More rested: 182d vs opponent's 92d
!Coming off 3 losses in a row
!Returning from a long layoff (182d) — possible rustiness
The model makes M. Echargui the favorite with a 61% win probability, against H. Dellien's 39% — a solid favorite, though Dellien keeps real chances. Converted to odds, that probability is worth about @1.64; the offered odds are around @1.53 (a 65% implied), slightly below the market, so the model is a touch more cautious.
Several factors explain the number: #197 vs #141; 182d vs opponent's 92d.
Read it with perspective. Our probability is calibrated — when the model says 61%, that outcome happens roughly that percentage of the time, with ~65% out-of-sample accuracy — but being the favorite is not being the winner: roughly 39 out of every 100 times Dellien wins. The model also tends to agree with the market, so the odds already capture almost all the edge: don't take it as a sure value. Watch out for: Coming off 3 losses in a row; Returning from a long layoff (182d) — possible rustiness. This is informational analysis, not a betting recommendation. 18+ · play responsibly.