J. Tjen vs D. Yastremska — prediction

Monterrey

TJENWIN PROBABILITYYASTREMSKA

56%

model prob.

@1.56

odds · 64% impl.

⚔H2H 1–0 Tjen⏱Rest 6d vs 11d◐Hard 53%🎾Serve 59%📈Form 4/10

CONDITIONS OF THE MATCH◆ in the model◇ context

Surface◆

Hard

Consistent bounce, medium-fast: neutral conditions, no style favored.

Temperature◇

35°C

Strong heat: warm air speeds the ball up and physical wear tells in long matches.

Humidity◇

28%

Very dry air: the ball travels faster.

Wind◇

20 km/h

Some wind: makes baseline control harder.

Altitude◇

540 m

Moderate altitude: the ball flies a little more than at sea level.

Surface feeds the model (surface specialization is one of its factors). Weather and altitude are context we publish for you — they do NOT move the probability.

OUR MODEL'S REASONING

›Ranking: #37 vs #107 (better ranked)

›Recent form: 3/10 in recent matches

›Head-to-head: 1-0 in favor

›Hard specialist: performs +8% above baseline (53% career on the surface)

›Model 56% vs market 64% → the model sees it as less likely than the odds

Calibrated model probability (~64% out-of-sample accuracy, validated specifically on WTA). Not a guarantee: the model ≈ the market on average, so the odds already capture almost all the edge. 18+ · gamble responsibly.

@1.78

fair odds

−12.3%

expected value

BREAKDOWN · MODEL ANALYSIS

The model makes J. Tjen the favorite with a 56% win probability, against D. Yastremska's 44% — a tight match, without a wide margin. Converted to odds, that probability is worth about @1.78; the offered odds are around @1.56 (a 64% implied), slightly below the market, so the model is a touch more cautious.

Several factors explain the number: #37 vs #107 (better ranked); 3/10 in recent matches; 1-0 in favor; performs +8% above baseline (53% career on the surface).

Read it with perspective. Our probability is calibrated — when the model says 56%, that outcome happens roughly that percentage of the time, with ~64% out-of-sample accuracy — but being the favorite is not being the winner: roughly 44 out of every 100 times Yastremska wins. The model also tends to agree with the market, so the odds already capture almost all the edge: don't take it as a sure value. This is informational analysis, not a betting recommendation. 18+ · play responsibly.

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