Consistent bounce, medium-fast: neutral conditions, no style favored.
Warm: the ball flies a little more and fitness counts.
Dry air: the ball travels normally.
Light wind: no noticeable effect.
Surface feeds the model (surface specialization is one of its factors). Weather and altitude are context we publish for you — they do NOT move the probability.
›Ranking: #205 vs #839 (better ranked)
›More rested: 559d vs opponent's 195d
›Model 63% vs market 94% → the model sees it as less likely than the odds
!Returning from a long layoff (559d) — possible rustiness
The model makes C. Chidekh the favorite with a 63% win probability, against F. Coria's 37% — a solid favorite, though Coria keeps real chances. Converted to odds, that probability is worth about @1.59; the offered odds are around @1.06 (a 94% implied), slightly below the market, so the model is a touch more cautious.
Several factors explain the number: #205 vs #839 (better ranked); 559d vs opponent's 195d; model 63% vs market 94% → the model sees it as less likely than the odds.
Read it with perspective. Our probability is calibrated — when the model says 63%, that outcome happens roughly that percentage of the time, with ~65% out-of-sample accuracy — but being the favorite is not being the winner: roughly 37 out of every 100 times Coria wins. The model also tends to agree with the market, so the odds already capture almost all the edge: don't take it as a sure value. Watch out for: Returning from a long layoff (559d) — possible rustiness. This is informational analysis, not a betting recommendation. 18+ · play responsibly.