I. Swiatek vs J. Pegula — prediction

Cincinnati

SWIATEKWIN PROBABILITYPEGULA

54%

model prob.

@1.39

odds · 72% impl.

⚔H2H 7–5 Swiatek⏱Rest 3d vs 2d◐Hard 77%🎾Serve 62%📈Form 9/10 · 9✓

CONDITIONS OF THE MATCH◆ in the model◇ context

Surface◆

Hard

Consistent bounce, medium-fast: neutral conditions, no style favored.

Temperature◇

28°C

Warm: the ball flies a little more and fitness counts.

Humidity◇

53%

Dry air: the ball travels normally.

Wind◇

18 km/h

Some wind: makes baseline control harder.

Surface feeds the model (surface specialization is one of its factors). Weather and altitude are context we publish for you — they do NOT move the probability.

OUR MODEL'S REASONING

›Ranking: #5 vs #3

›Recent form: 8/10 in recent matches

›On a streak: 6 wins in a row

›Head-to-head: 7-3 in favor

›Solid on Hard: 79% career on the surface

›Match-sharp: 4 matches in the last 2 weeks

›Model 54% vs market 72% → the model sees it as less likely than the odds

WATCH FOR

!The opponent is ranked higher (#3)

Calibrated model probability (~64% out-of-sample accuracy, validated specifically on WTA). Not a guarantee: the model ≈ the market on average, so the odds already capture almost all the edge. 18+ · gamble responsibly.

@1.84

fair odds

−24.3%

expected value

BREAKDOWN · MODEL ANALYSIS

The model makes I. Swiatek the favorite with a 54% win probability, against J. Pegula's 46% — a tight match, without a wide margin. Converted to odds, that probability is worth about @1.84; the offered odds are around @1.39 (a 72% implied), slightly below the market, so the model is a touch more cautious.

Several factors explain the number: #5 vs #3; 8/10 in recent matches; 6 wins in a row; 7-3 in favor.

Read it with perspective. Our probability is calibrated — when the model says 54%, that outcome happens roughly that percentage of the time, with ~64% out-of-sample accuracy — but being the favorite is not being the winner: roughly 46 out of every 100 times Pegula wins. The model also tends to agree with the market, so the odds already capture almost all the edge: don't take it as a sure value. Watch out for: The opponent is ranked higher (#3). This is informational analysis, not a betting recommendation. 18+ · play responsibly.

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The value read of I. Swiatek vs J. Pegula — fair odds, expected value, and the factor-by-factor breakdown.

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