A. Bondar vs E. Jacquemot — prediction
Consistent bounce, medium-fast: neutral conditions, no style favored.
Strong heat: warm air speeds the ball up and physical wear tells in long matches.
Very dry air: the ball travels faster.
Some wind: makes baseline control harder.
Moderate altitude: the ball flies a little more than at sea level.
Surface feeds the model (surface specialization is one of its factors). Weather and altitude are context we publish for you — they do NOT move the probability.
›Ranking: #76 vs #102 (better ranked)
›Head-to-head: 1-0 in favor
›Model 62% vs market 71% → the model sees it as less likely than the odds
›Recent form: 6/10 in recent matches
The model makes A. Bondar the favorite with a 62% win probability, against E. Jacquemot's 38% — a solid favorite, though Jacquemot keeps real chances. Converted to odds, that probability is worth about @1.61; the offered odds are around @1.41 (a 71% implied), slightly below the market, so the model is a touch more cautious.
Several factors explain the number: #76 vs #102 (better ranked); 1-0 in favor; model 62% vs market 71% → the model sees it as less likely than the odds; 6/10 in recent matches.
Read it with perspective. Our probability is calibrated — when the model says 62%, that outcome happens roughly that percentage of the time, with ~64% out-of-sample accuracy — but being the favorite is not being the winner: roughly 38 out of every 100 times Jacquemot wins. The model also tends to agree with the market, so the odds already capture almost all the edge: don't take it as a sure value. This is informational analysis, not a betting recommendation. 18+ · play responsibly.