J. Aguilar Cardozo vs M. Exsted — prediction

M15 Asuncion 2 (Paraguay)

Result pending

CARDOZOWIN PROBABILITYEXSTED

78%

Elo prob.

@1.30

odds · 77% impl.

🎾Serve 54%📈Form 10/10 · 13✓

CONDITIONS OF THE MATCH◆ in the model◇ context

Surface◆

Clay

Slow court, high bounce: longer points, rewards whoever holds up from the baseline.

Temperature◇

21°C

Mild: neutral conditions.

Humidity◇

54%

Dry air: the ball travels normally.

Wind◇

2 km/h

Light wind: no noticeable effect.

Surface feeds the model (surface specialization is one of its factors). Weather and altitude are context we publish for you — they do NOT move the probability.

WHAT THE ESTIMATE IS BASED ON

›Tour Elo: 1775 vs 1558 — favorite by rating

›ITF tier · 135 matches in the favorite's track record

›Elo estimate (not the ATP factor model): these are softer, less-analyzed markets

WATCH FOR

!Soft market: the value edge in Challenger/ITF is NOT proven live — treat it as an estimate, not an opportunity.

Tour Elo estimate (Challenger/ITF markets, not covered by the factor model). The value edge here is unproven live — it's a reference, not a recommendation. 18+ · gamble responsibly.

@1.29

fair odds

+1.0%

expected value

BREAKDOWN · ELO ESTIMATE

The model makes J. Aguilar Cardozo the favorite with a 78% win probability, against M. Exsted's 22% — a conviction read: the model sees the match clearly leaning one way. Converted to odds, that probability is worth about @1.29; the offered odds are around @1.30 (a 77% implied), virtually the same as what the market prices in.

Several factors explain the number: 1775 vs 1558 — favorite by rating; itf tier · 135 matches in the favorite's track record; these are softer, less-analyzed markets.

Read it with caution. This number does NOT come from the ATP factor model, but from the tour's real Elo: it ranks who is the favorite well, but it is a coarser estimate. Being the favorite is not being the winner: roughly 22 out of every 100 times Exsted wins. And above all, in Challenger/ITF the value edge is not proven live, so treat it as a reference, not an opportunity. Watch out for: Soft market: the value edge in Challenger/ITF is NOT proven live — treat it as an estimate, not an opportunity.. This is informational analysis, not a betting recommendation. 18+ · play responsibly.

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The value read of J. Aguilar Cardozo vs M. Exsted — fair odds, expected value, and the factor-by-factor breakdown.

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