MODEL PREDICTION · 2026-08-21
● HARD
C. Gauff vs M. Kostyuk — prediction
Result pending
GAUFFWIN PROBABILITYKOSTYUK
62%
model prob.
@1.74
odds · 57% impl.
⚔H2H 3–2 Gauff◐Hard 72%🎾Serve 62%📈Form 7/10 · 3✓
CONDITIONS OF THE MATCH◆ in the model◇ context
Surface◆
Hard
Consistent bounce, medium-fast: neutral conditions, no style favored.
Temperature◇
30°C
Strong heat: warm air speeds the ball up and physical wear tells in long matches.
Humidity◇
52%
Dry air: the ball travels normally.
Wind◇
3 km/h
Light wind: no noticeable effect.
Surface feeds the model (surface specialization is one of its factors). Weather and altitude are context we publish for you — they do NOT move the probability.
OUR MODEL'S REASONING
›Ranking: #4 vs #11 (better ranked)
›Recent form: 8/10 in recent matches
›Head-to-head: 3-2 in favor
›Solid on Hard: 71% career on the surface
›Match-sharp: 3 matches in the last 2 weeks
Calibrated model probability (~64% out-of-sample accuracy, validated specifically on WTA). Not a guarantee: the model ≈ the market on average, so the odds already capture almost all the edge. 18+ · gamble responsibly.