A. Fils vs F. Cobolli — prediction
Consistent bounce, medium-fast: neutral conditions, no style favored.
Strong heat: warm air speeds the ball up and physical wear tells in long matches.
Dry air: the ball travels normally.
Light wind: no noticeable effect.
Surface feeds the model (surface specialization is one of its factors). Weather and altitude are context we publish for you — they do NOT move the probability.
›Ranking: #21 vs #10
›Recent form: 6/10 in recent matches
›Head-to-head: 1-0 in favor
›Solid on Hard: 61% career on the surface
›Model 57% vs market 75% → the model sees it as less likely than the odds
!The opponent is ranked higher (#10)
The model makes A. Fils the favorite with a 57% win probability, against F. Cobolli's 43% — a tight match, without a wide margin. Converted to odds, that probability is worth about @1.76; the offered odds are around @1.34 (a 75% implied), slightly below the market, so the model is a touch more cautious.
Several factors explain the number: #21 vs #10; 6/10 in recent matches; 1-0 in favor; 61% career on the surface.
Read it with perspective. Our probability is calibrated — when the model says 57%, that outcome happens roughly that percentage of the time, with ~65% out-of-sample accuracy — but being the favorite is not being the winner: roughly 43 out of every 100 times Cobolli wins. The model also tends to agree with the market, so the odds already capture almost all the edge: don't take it as a sure value. Watch out for: The opponent is ranked higher (#10). This is informational analysis, not a betting recommendation. 18+ · play responsibly.