T. Fritz vs D. Merida Aguilar — prediction
Consistent bounce, medium-fast: neutral conditions, no style favored.
Warm: the ball flies a little more and fitness counts.
Dry air: the ball travels normally.
Light wind: no noticeable effect.
Surface feeds the model (surface specialization is one of its factors). Weather and altitude are context we publish for you — they do NOT move the probability.
›Ranking: #9 vs #40 (better ranked)
›Recent form: 8/10 in recent matches
›Solid on Hard: 62% career on the surface
›More rested: 13d vs opponent's 6d
›Model 66% vs market 81% → the model sees it as less likely than the odds
The model makes T. Fritz the favorite with a 66% win probability, against D. Merida Aguilar's 34% — a solid favorite, though Aguilar keeps real chances. Converted to odds, that probability is worth about @1.51; the offered odds are around @1.24 (a 81% implied), slightly below the market, so the model is a touch more cautious.
Several factors explain the number: #9 vs #40 (better ranked); 8/10 in recent matches; 62% career on the surface; 13d vs opponent's 6d.
Read it with perspective. Our probability is calibrated — when the model says 66%, that outcome happens roughly that percentage of the time, with ~65% out-of-sample accuracy — but being the favorite is not being the winner: roughly 34 out of every 100 times Aguilar wins. The model also tends to agree with the market, so the odds already capture almost all the edge: don't take it as a sure value. This is informational analysis, not a betting recommendation. 18+ · play responsibly.