M. Kostyuk vs S. Stephens — prediction

The model makes M. Kostyuk the favorite with a 85% win probability, against S. Stephens's 15% — a conviction read: the model sees the match clearly leaning one way. Converted to odds, that probability is worth about @1.18; the offered odds are around @1.10 (a 91% implied), slightly below the market, so the model is a touch more cautious.

Several factors explain the number: #11 vs #240 (better ranked); 7/10 in recent matches; 3 matches in the last 2 weeks; model 85% vs market 91% → the model sees it as less likely than the odds.

Read it with perspective. Our probability is calibrated — when the model says 85%, that outcome happens roughly that percentage of the time, with ~64% out-of-sample accuracy — but being the favorite is not being the winner: roughly 15 out of every 100 times Stephens wins. The model also tends to agree with the market, so the odds already capture almost all the edge: don't take it as a sure value. This is informational analysis, not a betting recommendation. 18+ · play responsibly.