G. Onclin vs J. McCabe — prediction

Cancun 2

Result pending

ONCLINWIN PROBABILITYMCCABE

68%

Elo prob.

@1.42

odds · 70% impl.

⏱Rest 3d vs 5d🎾Serve 63%📈Form 5/10

CONDITIONS OF THE MATCH◆ in the model◇ context

Surface◆

Hard

Consistent bounce, medium-fast: neutral conditions, no style favored.

Temperature◇

30°C

Strong heat: warm air speeds the ball up and physical wear tells in long matches.

Humidity◇

77%

Very humid air: the ball gets heavy and points stretch out.

Wind◇

9 km/h

Light wind: no noticeable effect.

Surface feeds the model (surface specialization is one of its factors). Weather and altitude are context we publish for you — they do NOT move the probability.

WHAT THE ESTIMATE IS BASED ON

›Tour Elo: 1819 vs 1692 — favorite by rating

›Challenger tier · 373 matches in the favorite's track record

›Elo estimate (not the ATP factor model): these are softer, less-analyzed markets

WATCH FOR

!Soft market: the value edge in Challenger/ITF is NOT proven live — treat it as an estimate, not an opportunity.

Tour Elo estimate (Challenger/ITF markets, not covered by the factor model). The value edge here is unproven live — it's a reference, not a recommendation. 18+ · gamble responsibly.

@1.48

fair odds

−4.1%

expected value

BREAKDOWN · ELO ESTIMATE

The model makes G. Onclin the favorite with a 68% win probability, against J. McCabe's 32% — a solid favorite, though McCabe keeps real chances. Converted to odds, that probability is worth about @1.48; the offered odds are around @1.42 (a 70% implied), virtually the same as what the market prices in.

Several factors explain the number: 1819 vs 1692 — favorite by rating; challenger tier · 373 matches in the favorite's track record; these are softer, less-analyzed markets.

Read it with caution. This number does NOT come from the ATP factor model, but from the tour's real Elo: it ranks who is the favorite well, but it is a coarser estimate. Being the favorite is not being the winner: roughly 32 out of every 100 times McCabe wins. And above all, in Challenger/ITF the value edge is not proven live, so treat it as a reference, not an opportunity. Watch out for: Soft market: the value edge in Challenger/ITF is NOT proven live — treat it as an estimate, not an opportunity.. This is informational analysis, not a betting recommendation. 18+ · play responsibly.

Analyze today's matches →

🔒

Full analysis & value verdict is Premium

The value read of G. Onclin vs J. McCabe — fair odds, expected value, and the factor-by-factor breakdown.

New here? Free account · 3 days of full access