E. Alexandrova vs S. Bejlek — prediction

The model makes E. Alexandrova the favorite with a 58% win probability, against S. Bejlek's 42% — a tight match, without a wide margin. Converted to odds, that probability is worth about @1.71; the offered odds are around @1.82 (a 55% implied), slightly above the market, so the model is a touch more optimistic.

Several factors explain the number: #18 vs #35 (better ranked); 7/10 in recent matches; 0-1 against; 4 matches in the last 2 weeks.

Read it with perspective. Our probability is calibrated — when the model says 58%, that outcome happens roughly that percentage of the time, with ~64% out-of-sample accuracy — but being the favorite is not being the winner: roughly 42 out of every 100 times Bejlek wins. The model also tends to agree with the market, so the odds already capture almost all the edge: don't take it as a sure value. Watch out for: Unfavorable head-to-head record (0-1). This is informational analysis, not a betting recommendation. 18+ · play responsibly.