A. Guerrieri vs A. Donski — prediction

Quebec City (Canada) - Qualification

✓ Correct

GUERRIERIWIN PROBABILITYDONSKI

72%

Elo prob.

@1.36

odds · 74% impl.

⚔H2H 1–0 Guerrieri⏱Rest 8d vs 10d🎾Serve 60%📈Form 6/10

CONDITIONS OF THE MATCH◆ in the model◇ context

Surface◆

Hard

Consistent bounce, medium-fast: neutral conditions, no style favored.

Surface feeds the model — surface specialization is one of its factors.

WHAT THE ESTIMATE IS BASED ON

›Tour Elo: 1860 vs 1693 — favorite by rating

›Challenger tier · 281 matches in the favorite's track record

›Elo estimate (not the ATP factor model): these are softer, less-analyzed markets

WATCH FOR

!Soft market: the value edge in Challenger/ITF is NOT proven live — treat it as an estimate, not an opportunity.

Tour Elo estimate (Challenger/ITF markets, not covered by the factor model). The value edge here is unproven live — it's a reference, not a recommendation. 18+ · gamble responsibly.

@1.38

fair odds

−1.7%

expected value

BREAKDOWN · ELO ESTIMATE

The model makes A. Guerrieri the favorite with a 72% win probability, against A. Donski's 28% — a solid favorite, though Donski keeps real chances. Converted to odds, that probability is worth about @1.38; the offered odds are around @1.36 (a 74% implied), virtually the same as what the market prices in.

Several factors explain the number: 1860 vs 1693 — favorite by rating; challenger tier · 281 matches in the favorite's track record; these are softer, less-analyzed markets.

Read it with caution. This number does NOT come from the ATP factor model, but from the tour's real Elo: it ranks who is the favorite well, but it is a coarser estimate. Being the favorite is not being the winner: roughly 28 out of every 100 times Donski wins. And above all, in Challenger/ITF the value edge is not proven live, so treat it as a reference, not an opportunity. Watch out for: Soft market: the value edge in Challenger/ITF is NOT proven live — treat it as an estimate, not an opportunity.. This is informational analysis, not a betting recommendation. 18+ · play responsibly.

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The value read of A. Guerrieri vs A. Donski — fair odds, expected value, and the factor-by-factor breakdown.

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