A. Eala vs A. Anisimova — prediction

Cincinnati

EALAWIN PROBABILITYANISIMOVA

52%

model prob.

@2.03

odds · 49% impl.

⏱Rest 7d vs 2d◐Hard 62%🎾Serve 60%📈Form 8/10

CONDITIONS OF THE MATCH◆ in the model◇ context

Surface◆

Hard

Consistent bounce, medium-fast: neutral conditions, no style favored.

Temperature◇

28°C

Warm: the ball flies a little more and fitness counts.

Humidity◇

76%

Very humid air: the ball gets heavy and points stretch out.

Wind◇

13 km/h

Light wind: no noticeable effect.

Surface feeds the model (surface specialization is one of its factors). Weather and altitude are context we publish for you — they do NOT move the probability.

OUR MODEL'S REASONING

›Ranking: #20 vs #10

›Recent form: 8/10 in recent matches

›Match-sharp: 4 matches in the last 2 weeks

WATCH FOR

!The opponent is ranked higher (#10)

Calibrated model probability (~64% out-of-sample accuracy, validated specifically on WTA). Not a guarantee: the model ≈ the market on average, so the odds already capture almost all the edge. 18+ · gamble responsibly.

@1.92

fair odds

+5.6%

expected value

BREAKDOWN · MODEL ANALYSIS

The model makes A. Eala the favorite with a 52% win probability, against A. Anisimova's 48% — a tight match, without a wide margin. Converted to odds, that probability is worth about @1.92; the offered odds are around @2.03 (a 49% implied), slightly above the market, so the model is a touch more optimistic.

Several factors explain the number: #20 vs #10; 8/10 in recent matches; 4 matches in the last 2 weeks.

Read it with perspective. Our probability is calibrated — when the model says 52%, that outcome happens roughly that percentage of the time, with ~64% out-of-sample accuracy — but being the favorite is not being the winner: roughly 48 out of every 100 times Anisimova wins. The model also tends to agree with the market, so the odds already capture almost all the edge: don't take it as a sure value. Watch out for: The opponent is ranked higher (#10). This is informational analysis, not a betting recommendation. 18+ · play responsibly.

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The value read of A. Eala vs A. Anisimova — fair odds, expected value, and the factor-by-factor breakdown.

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