R. Jodar vs A. Tabilo — prediction
Consistent bounce, medium-fast: neutral conditions, no style favored.
Strong heat: warm air speeds the ball up and physical wear tells in long matches.
Humid air: the ball loses some speed.
Light wind: no noticeable effect.
Surface feeds the model (surface specialization is one of its factors). Weather and altitude are context we publish for you — they do NOT move the probability.
›Ranking: #11 vs #29 (better ranked)
›Head-to-head: 1-1 even
›Solid on Hard: 62% career on the surface
›Recent form: 8/10 in recent matches
›Match-sharp: 8 matches in the last 2 weeks
The model makes R. Jodar the favorite with a 66% win probability, against A. Tabilo's 34% — a solid favorite, though Tabilo keeps real chances. Converted to odds, that probability is worth about @1.51; the offered odds are around @1.43 (a 70% implied), slightly below the market, so the model is a touch more cautious.
Several factors explain the number: #11 vs #29 (better ranked); 1-1 even; 62% career on the surface; 8/10 in recent matches.
Read it with perspective. Our probability is calibrated — when the model says 66%, that outcome happens roughly that percentage of the time, with ~65% out-of-sample accuracy — but being the favorite is not being the winner: roughly 34 out of every 100 times Tabilo wins. The model also tends to agree with the market, so the odds already capture almost all the edge: don't take it as a sure value. This is informational analysis, not a betting recommendation. 18+ · play responsibly.