D. Parry vs L. Boisson — prediction
Consistent bounce, medium-fast: neutral conditions, no style favored.
Strong heat: warm air speeds the ball up and physical wear tells in long matches.
Humid air: the ball loses some speed.
Light wind: no noticeable effect.
Surface feeds the model (surface specialization is one of its factors). Weather and altitude are context we publish for you — they do NOT move the probability.
›Ranking: #66 vs #281 (better ranked)
›Recent form: 5/10 in recent matches
›Model 70% vs market 50% → the model sees it as MORE likely than the odds
!Coming off 3 losses in a row
The model makes D. Parry the favorite with a 70% win probability, against L. Boisson's 30% — a solid favorite, though Boisson keeps real chances. Converted to odds, that probability is worth about @1.43; the offered odds are around @2.02 (a 50% implied), slightly above the market, so the model is a touch more optimistic.
Several factors explain the number: #66 vs #281 (better ranked); 5/10 in recent matches; model 70% vs market 50% → the model sees it as more likely than the odds.
Read it with perspective. Our probability is calibrated — when the model says 70%, that outcome happens roughly that percentage of the time, with ~64% out-of-sample accuracy — but being the favorite is not being the winner: roughly 30 out of every 100 times Boisson wins. The model also tends to agree with the market, so the odds already capture almost all the edge: don't take it as a sure value. Watch out for: Coming off 3 losses in a row. This is informational analysis, not a betting recommendation. 18+ · play responsibly.