M. Kostyuk vs S. Kenin — prediction
Consistent bounce, medium-fast: neutral conditions, no style favored.
Strong heat: warm air speeds the ball up and physical wear tells in long matches.
Humid air: the ball loses some speed.
Light wind: no noticeable effect.
Surface feeds the model (surface specialization is one of its factors). Weather and altitude are context we publish for you — they do NOT move the probability.
›Ranking: #11 vs #115 (better ranked)
›Recent form: 7/10 in recent matches
›Head-to-head: 0-1 against
›Match-sharp: 3 matches in the last 2 weeks
›Model 80% vs market 93% → the model sees it as less likely than the odds
!Unfavorable head-to-head record (0-1)
The model makes M. Kostyuk the favorite with a 80% win probability, against S. Kenin's 20% — a conviction read: the model sees the match clearly leaning one way. Converted to odds, that probability is worth about @1.25; the offered odds are around @1.08 (a 93% implied), slightly below the market, so the model is a touch more cautious.
Several factors explain the number: #11 vs #115 (better ranked); 7/10 in recent matches; 0-1 against; 3 matches in the last 2 weeks.
Read it with perspective. Our probability is calibrated — when the model says 80%, that outcome happens roughly that percentage of the time, with ~64% out-of-sample accuracy — but being the favorite is not being the winner: roughly 20 out of every 100 times Kenin wins. The model also tends to agree with the market, so the odds already capture almost all the edge: don't take it as a sure value. Watch out for: Unfavorable head-to-head record (0-1). This is informational analysis, not a betting recommendation. 18+ · play responsibly.