E. Lys vs S. Kenin — prediction
Consistent bounce, medium-fast: neutral conditions, no style favored.
Strong heat: warm air speeds the ball up and physical wear tells in long matches.
Humid air: the ball loses some speed.
Light wind: no noticeable effect.
Surface feeds the model (surface specialization is one of its factors). Weather and altitude are context we publish for you — they do NOT move the probability.
›Ranking: #85 vs #118 (better ranked)
›Recent form: 3/10 in recent matches
›Hard specialist: performs +8% above baseline (60% career on the surface)
›More rested: 46d vs opponent's 19d
!Coming off 3 losses in a row
!Returning from a long layoff (46d) — possible rustiness
The model makes E. Lys the favorite with a 53% win probability, against S. Kenin's 47% — a tight match, without a wide margin. Converted to odds, that probability is worth about @1.88; the offered odds are around @1.73 (a 58% implied), slightly below the market, so the model is a touch more cautious.
Several factors explain the number: #85 vs #118 (better ranked); 3/10 in recent matches; performs +8% above baseline (60% career on the surface); 46d vs opponent's 19d.
Read it with perspective. Our probability is calibrated — when the model says 53%, that outcome happens roughly that percentage of the time, with ~64% out-of-sample accuracy — but being the favorite is not being the winner: roughly 47 out of every 100 times Kenin wins. The model also tends to agree with the market, so the odds already capture almost all the edge: don't take it as a sure value. Watch out for: Coming off 3 losses in a row; Returning from a long layoff (46d) — possible rustiness. This is informational analysis, not a betting recommendation. 18+ · play responsibly.