A. Fery vs J. Duckworth — prediction
Consistent bounce, medium-fast: neutral conditions, no style favored.
Strong heat: warm air speeds the ball up and physical wear tells in long matches.
Humid air: the ball loses some speed.
Light wind: no noticeable effect.
Surface feeds the model (surface specialization is one of its factors). Weather and altitude are context we publish for you — they do NOT move the probability.
›Ranking: #37 vs #86 (better ranked)
›Recent form: 7/10 in recent matches
›More rested: 36d vs opponent's 10d
›Model 65% vs market 52% → the model sees it as MORE likely than the odds
!Returning from a long layoff (36d) — possible rustiness
The model makes A. Fery the favorite with a 65% win probability, against J. Duckworth's 35% — a solid favorite, though Duckworth keeps real chances. Converted to odds, that probability is worth about @1.54; the offered odds are around @1.91 (a 52% implied), slightly above the market, so the model is a touch more optimistic.
Several factors explain the number: #37 vs #86 (better ranked); 7/10 in recent matches; 36d vs opponent's 10d; model 65% vs market 52% → the model sees it as more likely than the odds.
Read it with perspective. Our probability is calibrated — when the model says 65%, that outcome happens roughly that percentage of the time, with ~65% out-of-sample accuracy — but being the favorite is not being the winner: roughly 35 out of every 100 times Duckworth wins. The model also tends to agree with the market, so the odds already capture almost all the edge: don't take it as a sure value. Watch out for: Returning from a long layoff (36d) — possible rustiness. This is informational analysis, not a betting recommendation. 18+ · play responsibly.