A. Anisimova vs Z. Sonmez — prediction
Consistent bounce, medium-fast: neutral conditions, no style favored.
Strong heat: warm air speeds the ball up and physical wear tells in long matches.
Humid air: the ball loses some speed.
Light wind: no noticeable effect.
Surface feeds the model (surface specialization is one of its factors). Weather and altitude are context we publish for you — they do NOT move the probability.
›Ranking: #10 vs #50 (better ranked)
›Recent form: 5/10 in recent matches
›Solid on Hard: 65% career on the surface
›Model 65% vs market 83% → the model sees it as less likely than the odds
The model makes A. Anisimova the favorite with a 65% win probability, against Z. Sonmez's 35% — a solid favorite, though Sonmez keeps real chances. Converted to odds, that probability is worth about @1.53; the offered odds are around @1.21 (a 83% implied), slightly below the market, so the model is a touch more cautious.
Several factors explain the number: #10 vs #50 (better ranked); 5/10 in recent matches; 65% career on the surface; model 65% vs market 83% → the model sees it as less likely than the odds.
Read it with perspective. Our probability is calibrated — when the model says 65%, that outcome happens roughly that percentage of the time, with ~64% out-of-sample accuracy — but being the favorite is not being the winner: roughly 35 out of every 100 times Sonmez wins. The model also tends to agree with the market, so the odds already capture almost all the edge: don't take it as a sure value. This is informational analysis, not a betting recommendation. 18+ · play responsibly.