MODEL PREDICTION · 2026-08-13
● HARD
T. Korpatsch vs M. Joint — prediction
KORPATSCHWIN PROBABILITYJOINT
62%
model prob.
@2.80
odds · 36% impl.
⏱Rest 10d vs 6d◐Hard 71%🎾Serve 54%📈Form 6/10 · 2✗
CONDITIONS OF THE MATCH◆ in the model◇ context
Surface◆
Hard
Consistent bounce, medium-fast: neutral conditions, no style favored.
Temperature◇
29°C
Warm: the ball flies a little more and fitness counts.
Humidity◇
77%
Very humid air: the ball gets heavy and points stretch out.
Wind◇
3 km/h
Light wind: no noticeable effect.
Surface feeds the model (surface specialization is one of its factors). Weather and altitude are context we publish for you — they do NOT move the probability.
OUR MODEL'S REASONING
›Ranking: #47 vs #75 (better ranked)
›Recent form: 5/10 in recent matches
›On a streak: 3 wins in a row
›More rested: 18d vs opponent's 14d
›Model 62% vs market 36% → the model sees it as MORE likely than the odds
Calibrated model probability (~64% out-of-sample accuracy, validated specifically on WTA). Not a guarantee: the model ≈ the market on average, so the odds already capture almost all the edge. 18+ · gamble responsibly.