G. Villanueva vs F. Aguilar Cardozo — prediction

M15 Asuncion

VILLANUEVAWIN PROBABILITYCARDOZO

83%

Elo prob.

@1.10

odds · 91% impl.

⚔H2H 1–0 Villanueva🎾Serve 59%📈Form 7/10

CONDITIONS OF THE MATCH◆ in the model◇ context

Surface◆

Clay

Slow court, high bounce: longer points, rewards whoever holds up from the baseline.

Temperature◇

20°C

Mild: neutral conditions.

Humidity◇

63%

Humid air: the ball loses some speed.

Wind◇

10 km/h

Light wind: no noticeable effect.

Surface feeds the model (surface specialization is one of its factors). Weather and altitude are context we publish for you — they do NOT move the probability.

WHAT THE ESTIMATE IS BASED ON

›Tour Elo: 1760 vs 1486 — favorite by rating

›ITF tier · 390 matches in the favorite's track record

›Elo estimate (not the ATP factor model): these are softer, less-analyzed markets

WATCH FOR

!Soft market: the value edge in Challenger/ITF is NOT proven live — treat it as an estimate, not an opportunity.

Tour Elo estimate (Challenger/ITF markets, not covered by the factor model). The value edge here is unproven live — it's a reference, not a recommendation. 18+ · gamble responsibly.

@1.21

fair odds

−8.8%

expected value

BREAKDOWN · ELO ESTIMATE

The model makes G. Villanueva the favorite with a 83% win probability, against F. Aguilar Cardozo's 17% — a conviction read: the model sees the match clearly leaning one way. Converted to odds, that probability is worth about @1.21; the offered odds are around @1.10 (a 91% implied), slightly below the market, so the model is a touch more cautious.

Several factors explain the number: 1760 vs 1486 — favorite by rating; itf tier · 390 matches in the favorite's track record; these are softer, less-analyzed markets.

Read it with caution. This number does NOT come from the ATP factor model, but from the tour's real Elo: it ranks who is the favorite well, but it is a coarser estimate. Being the favorite is not being the winner: roughly 17 out of every 100 times Cardozo wins. And above all, in Challenger/ITF the value edge is not proven live, so treat it as a reference, not an opportunity. Watch out for: Soft market: the value edge in Challenger/ITF is NOT proven live — treat it as an estimate, not an opportunity.. This is informational analysis, not a betting recommendation. 18+ · play responsibly.

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The value read of G. Villanueva vs F. Aguilar Cardozo — fair odds, expected value, and the factor-by-factor breakdown.

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